Capacity, denials, staffing, and contract performance for health systems
Operational and financial decision science for health systems, with mandated staffing ratios entered as hard constraints and every model scoped to stay clear of clinical recommendation. All models run under an executed BAA.
Common pain points that structured decision models eliminate.
Census forecasts presented as a single number collapse exactly when surge arrives. Project the surge and trough alongside the expected case so staffing is sized against the range units will actually see.
A high denial rate paired with a high overturn rate is a payer behavior problem, not a documentation problem. Separate the two so contracting fixes what appeals cannot.
Revenue never invoiced does not appear in a revenue report. Compare realized yield, charge lag, and underpayment per cohort against contracted terms to find where earned revenue is not landing.
Staffing models that optimize toward a mandated minimum become patient-safety exhibits. Ratios belong in the constraint set, and an infeasible result is a budget conversation, not a waiver.
How teams use DecisionLedger to make better decisions.
Forecasts census across surge and trough scenarios and sizes flex staffing against the surge case rather than the expected case, smoothing electives into the projected trough.
Premium labor spend reduced without adding fixed capacity
Separates payer-behavior denials from documentation denials by pairing denial rate with appeal overturn rate, then takes the high-overturn payers to contract renegotiation.
Denials removed at source instead of appealed one at a time
Runs unit-level staffing optimization with mandated ratios as hard floors, and escalates the budget when the problem returns infeasible rather than relaxing a ratio.
Coverage decisions that keep the safety constraint binding
Based on platform benchmarks across early adopters.
Capacity Planning
Single-point census forecast
Surge, expected, and trough range
Denials
Appealed individually
Root-caused by payer and service
Revenue Integrity
Leakage invisible in aggregate
Detected per cohort
Staffing
Ratios traded against budget
Ratios as hard constraints
Operational and financial decisions, with the clinical boundary drawn in code rather than in policy.
Census projection across surge, expected, and trough scenarios, sized for flex staffing rather than for an average day.
Denial root cause and leakage detection scoped to underpayment against contract. It never recommends a code, which keeps recovery work clear of False Claims Act exposure.
Staffing and OR block allocation with mandated ratios and service commitments as hard constraints, and an infeasible result reported as the finding.
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Power BIPre-built decision models ready to run with your data.
Finds payer, department and code combinations whose denial behavior departs from the population, ranked by recoverable dollars.
Allocates nursing and technician coverage against acuity-adjusted demand, with mandated ratios entered as hard constraints.
Projects inpatient census across demand scenarios so staffing, diversion and elective scheduling decisions are made against a range rather than a point estimate.
Allocates operating-room block time across services by realised utilization and contribution margin, under turnover and staffing constraints.
Evaluates overbooking strategies against attendance probability, trading idle clinic capacity against patient wait and overtime.
Compares approaches to prior-authorisation handling on administrative cost and care-delay impact by payer and service line.
Detects charge-capture gaps, contractual underpayment and write-off drift by comparing realised yield against expected yield per cohort.
Projects position against quality and total-cost benchmarks in a risk contract, with shared-savings and downside-risk scenarios.
Three steps to structured, auditable decisions.
Pull census and scheduling from the EHR, claims and remittance from the clearinghouse, and contracted rates from managed care, under an executed BAA with PHI handling in place.
Forecast census across demand scenarios, detect denial and leakage outliers by payer and service line, and optimize staffing and block allocation inside mandated constraints.
Take high-overturn payers to renegotiation, route low-overturn denials to documentation, and model risk-contract position before the benchmark is agreed.
Spreadsheet census forecasts
A single planned number that offers no range to staff against
Appeal-by-appeal denial work
Treating a payer behavior pattern as thousands of individual documentation problems
Calendar-driven block schedules
Block time allocated by history and negotiation rather than realized utilization
Generic staffing tools
Optimizers that treat a mandated ratio as an objective to trade against cost