Real Estate & Capital Projects
The largest irreversible decisions, modeled before they are signed
Capital projects are the largest irreversible commitments most organizations make, and they are usually approved on a single number. Model the distribution instead: overrun probability, completion range, covenant impact, and what deferral actually costs.
Challenges We Solve
Common pain points that structured decision models eliminate.
Contingency Set By Convention
A flat percentage bears no relation to how mature the scope actually is. Simulate out-turn cost and size contingency against the percentile the committee is willing to accept.
Programs Presented As A Date
A single completion date hides that permitting delay is heavily right-skewed. Simulate the critical path so the contractual longstop is tested against the distribution, not the plan.
Occupancy Decided On Rent
Lease versus own turns on the hold period and residual value, not the headline rent, and the balance-sheet effect can bind covenants regardless of the cash answer.
Deferral With No Record
A documented decision to defer maintenance on something that later fails is the exhibit. Prioritize by failure probability weighted for consequence, with life-safety work as a hard floor.
Use Cases
How teams use DecisionLedger to make better decisions.
Sets contingency from the simulated 95th-percentile out-turn instead of a flat percentage, and re-runs at each design gate to test whether the distribution is narrowing.
Contingency sized to scope maturity, with an objective gate criterion
Optimizes footprint disposition against seat coverage and talent-market presence, timing exits to lease expiry so the exit-cost budget stops binding.
Rationalization that is affordable because it is sequenced
Prioritizes the deferred maintenance backlog by consequence-weighted failure probability, funds life-safety work first, and records a rationale for every deferral.
Deferral becomes a reasoned decision with a record behind it
Measurable Impact
Based on platform benchmarks across early adopters.
Contingency
Flat percentage of budget
Sized to the simulated tail
Schedule
Single planned completion date
Simulated completion range
Occupancy
Compared on rent
Hold period, residual, and covenants
Maintenance
Whatever failed most recently
Consequence-weighted ranking
Built for Capital Committees
Distributions instead of single numbers, on the decisions that cannot be unwound.
Cost & Schedule Simulation
Monte Carlo out-turn cost and completion date, with right-skewed assumptions that do not flatter immature scope or optimistic permitting.
Portfolio Disposition
Footprint rationalization and site selection under seat coverage, talent-market presence, and exit-cost budget constraints.
Backlog Prioritization
Deferred maintenance ranked by failure probability weighted for consequence, with life-safety systems entered as a floor rather than a competing line item.
Connects With
Part of 150+ native integrations across CRM, marketing, finance, HR, ecommerce, and analytics
Salesforce
HubSpot
Stripe
Shopify
Google Analytics 4
Workday
QuickBooks
Snowflake
Slack
Zendesk
GitHub
Meta Ads
Mailchimp
NetSuite
Jira
Power BISalesforceHubSpotStripeShopifyGoogle Analytics 4WorkdayQuickBooksSnowflakeSlackZendeskGitHubMeta AdsMailchimpNetSuiteJiraPower BIFeatured Models
Pre-built decision models ready to run with your data.
Capital Project Overrun Risk
Simulates final project cost from scope maturity, contractor history, escalation and change-order behavior.
Construction Schedule Risk
Simulates completion date across the critical path, including float erosion, permit delay and weather exposure.
Data Center Capacity Siting
Scores compute-capacity placement against power availability, cooling cost, latency and data-residency constraints.
Deferred Maintenance Prioritizer
Allocates a fixed remediation budget across the backlog by failure probability weighted against consequence.
Energy Retrofit ROI
Compares retrofit packages on payback and carbon reduction, with incentive stacking and rate-escalation scenarios.
Portfolio Footprint Rationalization
Selects which sites to retain, sublease or exit given utilization, lease expiry and talent-market access.
Lease vs Own Analyzer
Compares leasing, buying and building across the hold period on discounted net cost including tax and residual value.
Site Selection Scorer
Ranks candidate locations on labour supply, incentives, logistics, climate exposure and tax burden.
How It Works
Three steps to structured, auditable decisions.
Frame the Commitment
Compare lease, buy, and build across the hold period with tax and residual value, and check the balance-sheet and covenant effect before anything is signed.
Simulate Cost and Schedule
Run out-turn cost and completion-date distributions at each design gate, and watch whether the range narrows as scope matures.
Allocate and Sequence
Optimize footprint disposition and remediation budget under real constraints, timing exits to lease expiry and funding life-safety work first.
The board approves a number, the project lands somewhere else, and nobody can say whether the contingency was ever sized for this scope. The schedule was always a single date.
Flat contingency percentages
A convention unrelated to the cost distribution of this particular project
Single-date programs
A completion date that hides a heavily right-skewed permitting assumption
Rent-only lease comparisons
Ignoring hold period, residual value, and the covenant effect of the recognized liability
Squeaky-wheel maintenance
Backlog worked in the order things break rather than by consequence-weighted risk